It's back to the movies with the 78th Annual Academy Awards
Mar 05 '06
The Bottom Line With only a few hours to go... here are my predictions (better late than never)!
Should I venture into the realm of making predictions without having seen all of this year's nominated films?
Maybe.
It's my age-old answer that I often give to an assortment questions; and it's also an age-old answer that often has my girlfriend and others often wanting to kill me for using it in response to their queries. But what the hell, here it goes... Steve's predictions based on the listing of nominees at the Official Oscar Website (which is not www.whyistheshowsolong.com as some may believe):
http://www.oscar.com/nominees/list.html
Steve's Predictions by Category...
1. Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
- Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow" (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment)
- Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)
- Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)
- David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck." (Warner Independent Pictures)
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I've actually seen all of these films except for "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Steve’s Prediction: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Why? Hoffman is an amazing actor who deserves to win. Terrence, Heath and Joaquin will undoubtedly have many more chances at Oscar in the future.
2. Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- George Clooney in "Syriana" (Warner Bros.)
- Matt Dillon in "Crash" (Lions Gate)
- Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax)
- Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features
- William Hurt in "A History of Violence" (New Line)
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I have yet to see "A History of Violence."
Steve’s Prediction: George Clooney
Why? I'm not sure it's his best performance ever, in my mind it could go to him or to Paul Giamatti. The Academy has had a strange history of sometimes giving an award to someone who does a good job, in recognition of the many other great jobs they've done in the past.
I also don't see Clooney winning anything else this year, but he has a chance to become another Eastwood - someday the Best Directing Oscar will sit on Clooney's shelf, I have no doubt.
3. Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (The Weinstein Company)
- Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica" (The Weinstein Company and IFC Films)
- Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features)
- Charlize Theron in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
- Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)
How many of these has Steve seen? 1/5
I have no business predicting this category, as I've only seen "Walk the Line."
Steve’s Prediction: Reese Witherspoon
Why? My Mom would kill me for this prediction, she feels that Felicity Huffman is a strong contender for this award and I agree with her. She feels Reese did nothing in her part, and with that, I disagree. Often, the most difficult acting jobs are portraying real life people, and I think that Reese has done an excellent job in her role as June Carter Cash.
4. Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Amy Adams in "Junebug" (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Catherine Keener in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
- Frances McDormand in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
- Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features)
- Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)
How many of these has Steve seen? 3 / 5
I have yet to watch "North Country" or "Junebug."
Steve’s Prediction: Rachel Weisz
Why? She gave a really great performance, in a film that would have fallen flat without her. Michelle Williams may also come close to winning though.
5. Best animated feature film of the year
- "Howl's Moving Castle" (Buena Vista), Hayao Miyazaki
- "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" (Warner Bros.), Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
- "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" (DreamWorks Animation SKG), Nick Park and Steve Box
How many of these has Steve seen? 2 / 3
I have yet to see "Howl's Moving Castle."
Steve’s Prediction: "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Why? An inventive and very funny film that deserves to win.
6. Achievement in art direction
- "Good Night, and Good Luck." (Warner Independent Pictures), Art Direction: Jim Bissell, Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
- "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Stuart Craig, Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
- "King Kong" (Universal), Art Direction: Grant Major, Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I have yet to see "Pride & Prejudice."
Steve’s Prediction: "King Kong"
Why? The film looked absolutely amazing - the recreation of 1930s New York City was simply stunning.
7. Achievement in cinematography
- "Batman Begins" (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Rodrigo Prieto
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Robert Elswit (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Dion Beebe
- "The New World" (New Line), Emmanuel Lubezki
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I have yet to see "The New World."
Steve’s Prediction: "The New World"
Why? From what I've seen on TV and from what I've heard, this film, like "King Kong" is an amazingly beautiful cinematic treat that deserves to be seen on the big screen.
8. Achievement in costume design
- "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" (Warner Bros.), Gabriella Pescucci
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Colleen Atwood
- "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (The Weinstein Company), Sandy Powell
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Jacqueline Durran
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Arianne Phillips
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/5
I have yet to see "Mrs. Henderson Presents" as well as "Pride & Prejudice."
Steve’s Prediction: "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Why? Those Geisha girls did look really amazing up on the big screen. Unless the academy decides to award the outlandish "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," I expect this film to take home the Gold.
9. Achievement in directing
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Ang Lee
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Bennett Miller
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Paul Haggis
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", George Clooney (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Steven Spielberg
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I have yet to see "Munich."
Steve’s Prediction: "Brokeback Mountain", Ang Lee
Why? I see this as being a split year, one in which the Best Picture and the Best Director are not the same pictures. Ang Lee did a wonderful job of bringing together a strong cast and he did get some amazing performances out of all of them. The story is also very controversial, and I don't see the Academy having the guts to give its Best Picture award to a film with this subject matter at this point in time. That day will come, it just won't be tonight (but then again, I could be wrong)
10. Best documentary feature
- "Darwin's Nightmare" (International Film Circuit), Hubert Sauper, A Mille et Une Production
- "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room", Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot, (Magnolia Pictures), An HDNet Films Production
- "March of the Penguins" (Warner Independent Pictures), Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau, A Bonne Pioche Production
- "Murderball" (THINKFilm), Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro, An Eat Films Production
- "Street Fight", Marshall Curry, A Marshall Curry Production
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/5
I haven't seen either "Darwin's Nightmare" or "Street Fight."
Steve’s Prediction: "March of the Penguins"
Why? It's such a great, family pleasing documentary that actually did well at the box office. "Enron" is also great, based on a strong book of the same name. THINKFilm, the distributor of "Murderball" has also been releasing some really thought-provoking documentaries, including "Born into Brothels," "Overnight," "The Argonomist," and last year's "The Aristocrats."
11. Best documentary short subject
- "The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club", Dan Krauss, A Dan Krauss Production
- "God Sleeps in Rwanda", Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman, An Acquaro/Sherman Production
- "The Mushroom Club", Steven Okazaki, A Farallon Films Production
- "A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin", Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson, A NomaFilms Production
How many of these has Steve seen? None
Steve’s Prediction: "God Sleeps in Rwanda"
Why? The subject matter of what has happened in Rwanda would seem to give this film an edge, in my mind.
12. Achievement in film editing
- "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Claire Simpson
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Hughes Winborne
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Michael Kahn
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Michael McCusker
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
I have yet to see "Munich."
Steve’s Prediction: "Cinderella Man"
Why? The film looked great, playing out well on the big screen.
13. Best foreign language film of the year
- "Don't Tell", Italy, A Cattleya/Rai Cinema Production
- "Joyeux Noël", France, A Nord-Ouest Production
- "Paradise Now", Palestine, An Augustus Film Production
- "Sophie Scholl - The Final Days", Germany, A Goldkind Filmproduktion and Broth Film Production
- "Tsotsi", South Africa, A Moviworld Production
How many of these has Steve seen? 0/5
Steve’s Prediction: "Tsotsi"
Why? From what I've read, it's one of the most powerful films of the group.
14. Achievement in makeup
- "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Howard Berger and Tami Lane
- "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax), David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
- "Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith", (20th Century Fox), Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/3
Steve’s Prediction: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
Why? Like me, people may end up scratching their heads as to why a CGI movie like "Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith" got nominated. I expect "Narnia" to walk away with this award.
15. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Gustavo Santaolalla
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Alberto Iglesias
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), John Williams
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), John Williams
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Dario Marianelli
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/5
Again, I haven't seen "Munich" or "Pride & Prejudice."
Steve’s Prediction: "Brokeback Mountain"
Why? Although John Williams did an amazing job with "Memoirs of a Geisha," turning in a performance that was probably the best part of that entire movie, I also think that Gustavo Santaolalla just might have what it takes to win this award for the fine score he turned in for "Brokeback Mountain."
16. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
- "In the Deep" from "Crash" (Lions Gate), Music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen "Bird" York
- "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow", Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment) - "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica" (The Weinstein Company and IFC Films), Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton
How many of these has Steve seen? 2/3
Steve’s Prediction: "Travelin' Thru"
Why? Dolly Parton always does a great job.
17. Best motion picture of the year
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Diana Ossana and James Schamus, Producers, A River Road Entertainment Production
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Caroline Baron, William Vince and Michael Ohoven, Producers, An A-Line Pictures/Cooper's Town/Infinity Media Production
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman, Producers, A Bob Yari/DEJ/Blackfriar's Bridge/Harris Company/ApolloProscreen GmbH & Co./Bull's Eye Entertainment Production
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Grant Heslov, Producer, (Warner Independent Pictures), A Good Night Good Luck LLC Production
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg and Barry Mendel, Producers, A Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Pictures Production
How many of these has Steve seen? 4/5
Steve’s Prediction: "Crash"
Why? As I mentioned above, I see this as a year where the Best Director and the Best Picture will go to different pictures. "Brokeback Mountain" is a great film, but I don't know if the Academy is ready to reward its subject matter just yet. But I could be wrong.
18. Best animated short film
- "Badgered", Sharon Colman, A National Film and Television School Production
- "The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation", John Canemaker and Peggy Stern, A John Canemaker Production
"The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello", (Monster Distributes), A 3D Films Production, Anthony Lucas
- "9", Shane Acker, A Shane Acker Production
- "One Man Band", Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews, A Pixar Animation Studios Production
How many of these has Steve seen? 1/5
Steve’s Prediction: "One Man Band"
Why? It's the only one I've seen, and Pixar always does a great job. However, don't count any of the others out just because Pixar did this one.
19. Best live action short film
- "Ausreisser (The Runaway)", Ulrike Grote, A Hamburg Media School, Filmwerkstatt Production
- "Cashback" (The British Film Institute), Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager, A Left Turn Films Production
- "The Last Farm", Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson, A Zik Zak Filmworks Production
- "Our Time Is Up", Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente, A Station B Production
- "Six Shooter" (Sundance Film Channel), Martin McDonagh, A Missing in Action Films and Funny Farm Films Production
How many of these has Steve seen? 0/5
Steve’s Prediction: NO PREDICTION
Why? I haven't seen or read anything about any of these films.
20. Achievement in sound editing
- "King Kong" (Universal), Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Wylie Stateman
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Richard King
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/3
Steve’s Prediction: "King Kong"
Why? It deserves to win all the technical awards - it's a great looking / great sounding film!
21. Achievement in sound mixing
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
- "King Kong" (Universal), Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins
How many of these has Steve seen? 5/5
Steve’s Prediction: "King Kong"
Why? See my response to category number 20.
22. Achievement in visual effects
- "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
- "King Kong" (Universal), Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randal M. Dutra and Daniel Sudick
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/3
Steve’s Prediction: "King Kong"
Why? See my answer to category numbers 20 and 21. Also, I feel that "Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith" deserved a nomination in this category over "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the With and the Wardrobe." And even if it had been nominated, "King Kong" would've still kicked the "Sith" off the stage. The bottom line is: If you still haven't seen this epic, go see it on the big screen while you still can - the small screen just won't do this film justice at all.
23. Adapted screenplay
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Screenplay by Dan Futterman
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
- "A History of Violence" (New Line), Screenplay by Josh Olson
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/5
Again, I have yet to see "A History of Violence" and "Munich."
Steve’s Prediction: "Brokeback Mountain"
Why? It was a great screenplay based on a great little short story.
24. Original screenplay
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov, (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Match Point" (DreamWorks), Written by Woody Allen
- "The Squid and the Whale" (Samuel Goldwyn Films and Sony Pictures Releasing), Written by Noah Baumbach
- "Syriana" (Warner Bros.), Written by Stephen Gaghan
How many of these has Steve seen? 3/5
I have yet to see "Match Point" as well as "The Squid and the Whale"
Steve’s Prediction: "Crash"
Why? Why "Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith" wasn't nominated is beyond me, but expect "Crash" to easily snatch this award. "Syriana" is also very deserving of this award.
Conclusion...
What can we conclude by my predictions? Not much. In fact, there are only 2 definitive statements that can be made:
1. It looks like I saw more of the nominated films than I thought I had. Good for me.
2. No matter whose predictions turn out to be right, tonight's award show should be enjoyable with the amazing Jon Stewart hosting. Of course, if he bombs, it will suck. And being a national family broadcast, Jon can't even fall back on The Aristocrats to save his act.
So the only thing left now is to go sit in front of a TV, grab some popcorn and watch them pass out ACADEMY AWARDS!
Good luck to all the nominees!
(c) March 5, 2006, Steven H. Lee
More Predictions and Oscar Info...
At Internet Movie Database...
http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2006/
At Roger Ebert's Website...
http://www.rogerebert.com/
Keep track of your predictions...
Using the IMDB ballot...
http://i.imdb.com/IMDb_RTO_Ballot.pdf
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Member: Steven Lee
Location: Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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